Smart Numbers
PO Box 636
Marietta, GA 30061-0636 Email: palm@smartnumbers.com
Directors, First Multiple Listing Service January 20, 2008
Denise Gryder
678-420-4422
This will not be an encouraging year-end report. October & November produced signs of market stabilization, but
December returned to a lot of downward trends.
Single family detached had 3,178 closings for December or a decline of 37% from December 2006. This result is also
lower than December’s 1998-2005 results. After lags are reported, Single family detached may exceed 12/2001, three
months after 9/11.
Single family detached has declined year-to-year for 16 out of the past 17 months.
Condos and townhomes closed 579 units in December or a decline of 38.9% over the same year ago period. This is the
10th consecutive monthly year-to-year decline and the 13th decline out of the past 16 periods.
For the year, condos and townhomes were down 12.2% from 2006. Single family detached was down 16.9% 2007
versus 2006. The only other year-to-year decline for single family detached was 2000/1999. That was the year of the
NASDAQ collapse and the percentage decline was only 2 tenths of 1 percent. On the other hand, the only year-to-year
decline since 1996 for condos and townhomes was 1999/1998 and that was only 8 tenths of 1 percent.
Total single family was down 16.2% for the entire year, 2007 versus 2006. Since 1996 there has never been a reported
year-year decline for all single family housing, until 2007.
sale price in December for single family detached was $250,910 or a decline of 3.5% from December 2006. Since
1994, this is the greatest year-to-year monthly negative change in average price. There have been only 5 negative
changes in year-to-year monthly average price declines in the past 13 years and two of them have been in the past three
months.
The average price for condos and townhomes was $186,034 in December. This was a 7.8% decline from December
2006 and the lowest reported average price since July 2006.
Single family detached had 8,128 expired listings in December, easily a new monthly record, surpassing September
2007’s 6,561.
There were 1,656 expired listings for condos & townhomes in December and a new monthly record, easily surpassing
December 2006’s 1,311 expired listings. For all single family there were 76,140 expired listings in 2007 or almost
20,000 more than 2006.
Days-on-market for all single family was 88.1 for 2007. This is the highest recorded yearly DOM since 1994.
Well, we are through with December and 2007! Now we are in 2008 and we need more interest rate cuts and to stay
out of recession. However, it may be too late. Hopefully recent and future actions by the government can stave off
any economic downturn.
However, what a GREAT time to buy a home in 2008, as lower interest rates are coming, prices are coming down, and
it is an entertaining election year! What a FANTASTIC time to buy a home!
Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2008 Smart Numbers
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1 comment:
I just spoke with one of the hold outs. The guy owns TWO units here. I was upfront with him and I asked him what was the main reason he was holding out. He stated he was not getting enough money from the deal. I asked what he was looking to get accomplished if he were to sell his units and his main goal is to "move across the street". I asked if his cash out was doubled than what the spread sheet reflected would he be willing to sell his two units and his answer was "hell yeah"! From my understanding, there are about 4 or 5 hold outs. This guy owns two of the 4 or 5. I strongly feel we can get enough people on the side to put together a legal and offical contract to get this guy the amount of money he wants. To accomplish this, we dont need everybody in the building to agree on giving up a piece of their pie to him. Just enough people willing to give enough so this guy cash out is doubled (20 people on the side giving up $1,000 of their payout would satisfy this guy). Now the other issue is contacting and finding out why the other holdouts wont sell. If it's about money, again I'm sure we could gather together enough people willing to construct a side contract to pay these people off. Keep in mind this WONT take EVERYBODY in the building to agree upon this. Just enough people on the side willing to volunteer to give up a little piece of their pie to make these holdouts sell. Also keep in mind this would be an agreement between the people on the side and the holdout(s)...it wont have anything to do with the contracts we have already signed and the Sobu Flats Assemblage. The contract we put together on the side would be contingent on the holdout(s) signing the contract for the Sobu Flats Assemblage first. Then once we get paid, they get their share we agreed upon. This is just an idea guys. I know it may not seem fair for the stubborn people to make out like bandits if this were to happen, but if it doesnt happen then we find ourselves in a deep hole with the buidling, it's current shape, increased future HOA's just for upkeep, continuos illegal renters damaging the building and property, and the reality of selling or refinancing these individual condo's in this down market. I would hate to try to sell a year from now and have to BRING money to the closing table because the reality is, these units have not increased in value over the years. I'm being proactive with this and if anyone agrees with me and is willing to make something like this happen please let us know.
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